The Road to Omaha – Part I

Every NCAA sports fan has their favorite time of year. While most pick football’s bowl season or March Madness in hoops, there is a growing popularity in NCAA baseball postseason action. There are 64 teams vying for 8 coveted invites to Omaha’s Johnny Rosenblatt Stadium. This weekend, that field will be narrowed to sixteen.

Which teams have the best chance to play through the May-hem and into the Super Regionals? Nine No. 1 seeds, five No. 2 seeds and a pair of No. 3 seeds, according to my not-so-expert opinion, which follows:

CORAL GABLES REGIONAL

1. Miami (FL)
2. Missouri
3. Mississippi
4. Bethune-Cookman

My pick: Miami
This is an exceptionally tough region, considering it belongs to the number 1 national seed. But with Mizzou and Ole Miss both needing to throw their aces on Friday in an attempt to move into the winner’s bracket, this sets up well for the hosting Hurricanes. Miami is balanced and consistently good and that will be enough.

CARY REGIONAL

1, UNC
2. UNC – Wilmington
3. Elon
4. Mount St. Mary’s

My pick: UNC
Seriously? I don’t care if UNC-W and Elon both won more than 40 games, this regional was gift-wrapped for the Tar Heels. After a below average showing in the conference tournament, UNC will use this weekend as a tune-up for the Supers.

TEMPE REGIONAL

1. Arizona State
2. Vanderbilt
3. Oklahoma
4. Stony Brook

My Pick: ASU
I really like this Sun Devils team and think they are one of the favorites to get to Omaha. Vandy has a darkhorse chance to advance, but they’ll need to play better than they did in the SEC regular season. The Sooners? Yeah, right. I think Pat Murphy is one of the better coaches in the country and will be shocked if ASU does not advance.

TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL

1. Florida State
2. Florida
3. Tulane
4. Bucknell

My pick: Florida
I think FSU’s catcher, Buster Posey, may very well be the best positional player in the country, but I am skeptical of team’s built around offense at this point in the season. UF and Tulane will have an excellent Friday match up, but in the end I think the Gators are too deep. UF will have the non-hosting chip on their shoulder and FSU’s postseason struggles will continue.

FULLERTON REGIONAL

1. CS – Fullerton
2. UCLA
3. Virginia
4. Rider

My pick: CS-F
This has a chance to be one of the most competitive Regionals in the country, especially if UCLA continues to build momentum. The Cavaliers will be tough on Friday, but don’t have the depth or consistency to hang through the weekend. The Titans are too strong on the bump and have historicaly fared well against the Bruins. It may be battered and bruised, but look for CS-Fullerton to emerge from the weekend.

HOUSTON REGIONAL

1. Rice
2. Texas
3. St. John’s
4. Sam Houston State

My pick: Texas
Do you really think I would pick against my alma mater? Augie Garrido and Wayne Graham have seen more baseball than the other 62 teams in the field have combined. The Horns are one of the hottest teams in the country, but that has as much to do with who they have played as how they’ve played. SJU and SHSU are both capable, but Texas and Rice are two of college baseball’s mammoths. Texas is the pick here only because of the mental edge they have over Rice. I think the Owls will press and that will be their undoing.

BATON ROUGE REGIONAL

1. LSU
2. Southern Miss
3. New Orleans
4. Texas Southern

My pick: LSU
There are some that think this Regional will be competitive due to the proximity of the top three seeds – I say hogwash! Yes, Southern Miss and New Orleans may be extra-motivated when facing LSU, but that will fade after the first few innings. The Tigers are more talented, they have oodles of momentum and they are playing at home. Sounds like a perfect cajun recipe to me!

ATHENS REGIONAL

1. UGA
2. Georgia Tech
3. Louisville
4. Lipscomb

My pick: UGA
In what is my favorite of all the host cities this year, there are three heavyweights and a first-timer. Lipscomb is so far in over their head, they are a drowning risk even if they wear a life jacket. The Dawgs are getting healthy and they will need it after losing two of three to Tech and having Louisville, a 2007 CWS team, in their Region. I do not trust the Bees postseason record and think this weekend will come down to the Dawgs and Cardinals. If Louisville gets hot at the plate, watch out, but I think Georgia, with the backdrop of a noisy Dawg pound, will eventually win out.

ANN ARBOR REGIONAL

1. Arizona
2. Michigan
3. Kentucky
4. Eastern Michigan

My pick: Michigan
This may be the most competitive of any Regional in the top three seeds. The Wolverines would be an easier pick if they didn’t have to face UK’s ace, Chris Rusin, on Friday. UofM handled Vandy’s talented pitching staff in 2007, can they find that same magic in 2008? Even though Arizona will be upset they are not playing in Tucson, I will take Michigan to win at home. The travel will take it’s toll on Arizona and everybody knows that a Wolverine beats a Wildcat.

CONWAY REGIONAL

1. Coastal Carolina
2. East Carolina
3. Alabama
4. Columbia

My pick: Alabama
This is a toss-up of epic proportions. Coastal Carolina is very good and has built a solid program. But the Chanticleers (yes, I had to look that up) are built around their offense. I have already stated that such a mindset is often a team’s undoing in the postseason, and it will be again here. ECU is good enough to win if they were at home, but they are too inconsistent on the road. I will take ‘Bama, almost by default, and not feel very confident in doing so.

LONG BEACH REGIONAL

1. Long Beach State
2. San Diego
3. California
4. Fresno State

My pick: LBSU
California is the best three seed in any Regional. They might be a solid pick here, but I don’t think they get a win over Torero ace Brian Matusz on Friday. While USD and Cal knock heads, LBSU gets the luxury of waiting for the winner on Saturday. The number one seed is a huge edge in Long Beach, as there are realistically three teams that had good enough resumes to be hosting this weekend. The team with the cool nickname, the Dirtbags, is my pick here.

STILLWATER REGIONAL

1. Oklahoma State
2. Wichita State
3. Texas Christian
4. Western Kentucky

My pick: Oklahoma State
The Pokes are still grumbling about not getting a national seed and will use this weekend to showcase why they think they deserved one. Wichita State’s pitching staff is slightly better and TCU has a couple of really good players, but neither team possesses the balanced and deep roster that OSU does. If the Cowboys falter early, T. Boone Pickens will probably start drilling for oil in the visitors dugout.

STANFORD REGIONAL

1. Stanford
2. Pepperdine
3. Arkansas
4. UC – Davis

My pick: Stanford
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm…..it is tempting to waltz out on this limb and pick UC – Davis, the nation’s best fourth seed, but I will resist. Arkansas was not good enough to make the SEC tournament and does not deserve to be here. Pepperdine is banged up, so Stanford should be an easy pick. So why am I so hesitant to pick the Cardinal? Put all four of these teams in a hat and pick a name. Magic 8 ball says, “Reply hazy, try again.”

COLLEGE STATION REGIONAL

1. Texas A&M
2. Dallas Baptist
3. Houston
4. Illinois-Chicago

My pick: Houston
The Aggies stumbled to an unspectacular finish and fumbled away a probable national seed in the process. With a fragile psyche, the Fighting Farmers went 1-2 in the Big 12 tournament. Despite a faithful home crowd that is eager to see them get back on track, I think the damage is done. Dallas Baptist is a good story, but Houston is the stronger team. Look for the Cougars to play through the winner’s bracket and have the advantage in the ‘Cupcake Quartet’.

LINCOLN REGIONAL

1. Nebraska
2. UC – Irvine
3. Oral Roberts
4. Eastern Illinois

My pick: UC – Irvine
It feels like Johnny Dorn has been pitching for the ’skers for 10 years. Even with all that experience, Dorn is not the best hurler in this Regional. That honor belongs to Scott Gorgen of UC-Irvine. ORU is solid, but has not faced teams the caliber of UC-I and Nebraska throughout the year. It’s going to be another disappointing postseason for Nebraska fans, meaning there will be good seats available in Omaha.

RALEIGH REGIONAL

1. North Carolina State
2. South Carolina
3. Charlotte
4. James Madison

My pick: South Carolina
This figures to be a really competitive regional that will probably play out to the final game. The Wolfpack are battle-tested from playing in the ACC and have the advantage of playing at home. The Gamecocks have not received consistency from the mound and that could be problematic this weekend. Charlotte and JMU both won their conference tournaments. NCSU has lost three consecutive openers in Regional play and that is enough for me to declare the winner of the South Carolina vs Charlotte contest as the favorite to win.